After last night’s first presidential debate between US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, crypto traders are betting that the likelihood of a Trump win in the election is far lower now than before the debate. Meanwhile, some crypto industry players took the chance to tout Bitcoin (BTC) again.
As of press time Wednesday morning (08:13 UTC), the Trump 2020 perpetual contract that is traded on crypto derivatives exchange FTX declined by more than 7% during the hour of the debate, from USD 0.436 before the debate and to USD 0.405 at the time of writing.
Similarly, ‘YES Trump’ and ‘NO Trump’ tokens issued by the decentralized prediction market protocol Augur (REP) also shows that people think that Trump’s chances of winning the election have decreased, with the NO Trump token now trading at USD 0.55 and YES Trump trading at USD 0.47.
However, market participants’ outlook on the election looked less favorable for Biden ahead of the debate, with the price of the YES Trump token at one point reaching nearly USD 0.50, before it corrected lower, according to data from Coingecko.
The price of the YES Trump token would go to USD 1 if Trump wins the election on November 3 and expire worthless if he loses, while the NO Trump tokens would move in the opposite direction.
Although the crypto world’s presidential prediction markets have given Biden the lead for now, however, many observers also agreed that the debate represented yet another low point in American politics. Once again, the Cryptoverse offered BTC as a solution.
“The debate was a landslide victory for Bitcoin,” wrote Dan Held, Growth Lead at major crypto exchange Kraken, while Julian Hosp of Cake DeFiasked his followers “So, tell me, how much faith do you have into the USD after watching 90 minutes of this madness of 2 people?,” while adding “Hey, Bitcoin fixes this!”
Meanwhile, the debate also brought some volatility to traditional financial markets, with US stock futures sliding lower on prospects of what observers like Northman Trader founder Sven Henrich worried “may not be an accepted election result.”
Futures not liking the prospect that there may not be an accepted election result on November 3. https://t.co/hhoYAWrqyd
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader)
Also commenting on the debate from the vantage point of traditional finance was famous gold bug and bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, who wrote on Twitter last night that the problem, in his view, is structural:
“When both candidates agree that [the] government should spend more, borrow more, and print more, and neither understands the nature of the structural problems that will precipitate the coming crisis, there’s nothing of substance to debate. The result is the spectacle we just witnessed.”
At the time of writing (08:13 UTC), bitcoin was unchanged over the past 24 hours, trading at USD 10,716. Meanwhile, US S&P 500 futures were down by 0.7% for the day, while gold prices were down by 0.5% to USD 1,888. ___
For the record, the last time we had a presidential debate, the price of #Bitcoin was $617.
— Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling)
— Mr. Anderson (@TrueCrypto28)
@APompliano @pierre_rochard You live in a fiat world, eat fiat food, enjoy fiat music surrounded by fiat friends. O… https://t.co/SHJPSAIu5J
Reports of the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus brought back memories of last summer when the fast-spreading Delta variant put a dent in the recovery and consumer confidence. This spooked investors on a traditionally quiet day in the market following Thanksgiving, leading to one of the worst days for stocks this year.
The Dow(INDU) logged its worst day since October 2020, while the S&P 500(SPX) had its worst performance since February. The Nasdaq Composite(COMP) recorded its steepest fall since September.
But just as the market quickly bounced back from its Delta fears, history appears to be repeating itself: Investors are taking a breath and sensing a buying opportunity.
The market opened in the green, with all three indexes sharply higher. The Dow opened up 375 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P rose 1.2%. The Nasdaq was 1.5% higher.
Other asset classes that were battered Friday — notably oil and cryptocurrencies — also recovered.
US oil prices were up 6.7%, or almost $5, at $72.69 per barrel around the time of the stock market open. That doesn’t totally make up for Friday’s drop, but it takes back a chunk of it.
The global oil benchmark Brent was up 5.7% at $76.84 per barrel.
Bitcoin was up more than 5%.
“Investors are trying to make sense of the latest Omicron Covid strain, but at this point more seems to be unknown than known,” said analysts at Bespoke Investments. “Clouding things even more, we’re unlikely to have definitive answers in the immediate future.”
US equities took a dive at the open and continued their downward path in the first half hour of trading, with the Dow more some 900 points lower. Oil prices were also badly hit.
Over the summer, the Delta variant spooked consumers and weighed on sectors like leisure and hospitality. Now investors and economists worry this new variant could do the same.
Wall Street was deep in the red early Friday, with the Dow(INDU) falling 2.5%, or about 900 points, in what is shaping up to be a volatile session. The broader S&P 500(SPX) tumbled 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite(COMP) opened down 1.3%.
It’s a shortened trading session as the New York Stock Exchange will close at 1 pm ET after being closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Reduced trading volume during this half-day session is also likely to exacerbate the swings in the market.
Nevertheless, it could shape up to be one of the worst days of the year for stocks.
But it’s not just stocks that aregetting a beating.
Oilprices are tumbling as well. US oil futures fell 7.4%, or nearly $6, to $72.51 per barrel around the time of the stock market open. The global benchmark Brent dropped 6.8% to $76.63 per barrel.
The US dollar, measured by the ICE US Dollar Index, which pegs it against its main rivals, was down 0.6% Friday morning.
Cryptocurrencies also felt the heat, dropping across the board. Bitcoin was down nearly 7% around the time of the stock market open, according to CoinDesk data.
Meanwhile, investors are pushing into safe haven investments. The 10-year US Treasury bond got more expensive and yields fell more than 0.1 percentage points to 1.52% Friday morning. Gold prices also jumped.
An NFT is “a unique digital certificate, registered in a blockchain, that is used to record ownership of an asset such as an artwork or a collectible,” according to a blog post from Collins, published Wednesday.
Acting like virtual signatures, NFTs prove the authenticity of an artwork as the blockchain serves as incorruptible proof of ownership, meaning that “original” artworks and their owners can always be identified via the blockchain, even if an image or video is widely replicated.
In March, a digital artwork named “Everydays: The First 5000 days” sold for $69.3 million via Christie’s, making its creator, graphic designer Mike Winkelmann, better known as Beeple, one of the art market’s most valuable living artists.
The idea of a digital revolution is also captured in another of the dictionary’s candidates for Word of the Year: “crypto,” short for “cryptocurrency,” digital money that is challenging traditional forms of money, according to Collins.
It also named “metaverse” in its blog post, following Facebook’s announcement that it would change its corporate name to Meta.
Other selected words reflect the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, with “double-vaxxed” and “hybrid working” making the shortlist.
“Climate anxiety” reflects growing concern about the damage humans are doing to the planet, while “neopronoun” is a way of referring to a person without using their name or traditional markers of gender, such as “he” and “she.” Collins gives “xe,” “ze” and “ve” as examples of neopronouns.
Rounding out the shortlist are “Regencycore,” which is defined as a fashion aesthetic inspired by the Georgian-era clothing seen in the Netflix show “Bridgerton,” and “cheugy,” which is used to say that something is out of date or uncool.
In 2020, Collins named “lockdown” its Word of the Year, for obvious reasons, and, earlier this month, Oxford Languages made “vax” its pick for 2021.
Defined as “a colloquialism meaning either vaccine or vaccination as a noun and vaccinate as a verb,” vax was relatively rare until this year, the company, which publishes the Oxford English Dictionary, said.
In September, vax appeared more than 72 times more frequently than the year before, said Oxford Languages, which analyzes news content to track changes in the English language.